Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: prediction & pick

Oklahoma City Thunder visit San Antonio Spurs with the model leaning toward Oklahoma City Thunder. Our projection has OKC favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of OKC 115 – SAS 112.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -1.5 on SAS, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is OKC +1.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 226.5 points while the book has hung 231.5. That points to the Under 231.5, with about 5.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of OKC 115 – SAS 112, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 80% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.