NBAComputerPicks
Today's Picks
Tuesday, September 15 · 2026 season

NBA computer picks — today's full slate

Every matchup below is graded by our model against the current market. The edge next to each pick is how many points our projection differs from the sportsbook line — the bigger the gap, the stronger the play. 41 of 41 games cleared our edge threshold today. Click any game for the full preview.

Reading the cards: Strong plays clear our highest edge threshold; Lean plays are smaller edges worth a lighter unit; Pass means no edge worth betting. Auto-updated Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 3:00 AM EDT.
PHIPHI
@
NYKNYK
Tue, Oct 20 · 11:00 PM ET  Strong
SpreadPHI +5.5 +1.5
TotalUnder 233.5 +10.0
MoneylineNYK -155
ProjectionPHI 110 – NYK 114
Model confidence85%
ATLATL
@
ORLORL
Wed, Oct 21 · 11:10 PM ET  Strong
SpreadORL -2.5 +1.5
TotalUnder 233.5 +8.5
MoneylineORL -155
ProjectionATL 111 – ORL 115
Model confidence85%
MILMIL
@
WASWAS
Wed, Oct 21 · 11:10 PM ET  Strong
SpreadMIL +6.5 +11.5
TotalUnder 238.5 +12.5
MoneylineMIL -175
ProjectionMIL 116 – WAS 111
Model confidence85%
CHACHA
@
BKNBKN
Wed, Oct 21 · 11:40 PM ET  Strong
SpreadBKN +4.5 +8.0
TotalUnder 226.5 +2.0
MoneylineBKN -145
ProjectionCHA 111 – BKN 114
Model confidence85%
MINMIN
@
MIAMIA
Wed, Oct 21 · 11:40 PM ET  Strong
SpreadMIN +1.5 +1.5
TotalUnder 242.5 +21.5
MoneylineMIA -100
ProjectionMIN 111 – MIA 111
Model confidence85%
INDIND
@
NOPNOP
Thu, Oct 22 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadNOP +4.5 +5.5
TotalUnder 242.5 +13.0
MoneylineNOP -110
ProjectionIND 114 – NOP 115
Model confidence85%
UTAUTA
@
MEMMEM
Thu, Oct 22 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadMEM +2.5 +9.5
TotalUnder 241.5 +13.5
MoneylineMEM -215
ProjectionUTA 111 – MEM 118
Model confidence85%
DALDAL
@
HOUHOU
Thu, Oct 22 · 12:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadDAL +8.5 +6.0
TotalUnder 227.5 +3.5
MoneylineHOU -130
ProjectionDAL 111 – HOU 113
Model confidence85%
GSWGSW
@
LALLAL
Thu, Oct 22 · 2:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadGSW +4.5 +1.5
TotalUnder 235.5 +8.5
MoneylineLAL -140
ProjectionGSW 112 – LAL 115
Model confidence85%
PHXPHX
@
PORPOR
Thu, Oct 22 · 2:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadPHX +4.5 +6.0
TotalUnder 235.5 +9.0
MoneylinePHX -120
ProjectionPHX 114 – POR 113
Model confidence85%
CLECLE
@
PHIPHI
Thu, Oct 22 · 11:10 PM ET  Strong
SpreadCLE +4.5 +3.5
TotalUnder 233.5 +10.0
MoneylinePHI -110
ProjectionCLE 111 – PHI 112
Model confidence85%
HOUHOU
@
SASSAS
Sat, Oct 24 · 1:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadHOU +6.5 +6.0
TotalUnder 225.5 +1.0
MoneylineSAS -105
ProjectionHOU 112 – SAS 113
Model confidence85%
CHACHA
@
WASWAS
Fri, Oct 30 · 11:10 PM ET  Strong
SpreadWAS +1.5 +3.0
TotalUnder 235.5 +9.5
MoneylineWAS -120
ProjectionCHA 112 – WAS 114
Model confidence85%
CHICHI
@
BOSBOS
Fri, Oct 30 · 11:40 PM ET  Strong
SpreadCHI +11.5 +2.0
TotalUnder 232.5 +7.0
MoneylineBOS -285
ProjectionCHI 108 – BOS 118
Model confidence85%
DETDET
@
BKNBKN
Fri, Oct 30 · 11:40 PM ET  Strong
SpreadBKN +7.5 +7.5
TotalOver 225.5 +0.0
MoneylineBKN -100
ProjectionDET 113 – BKN 113
Model confidence85%
NYKNYK
@
PHIPHI
Fri, Oct 30 · 11:40 PM ET  Strong
SpreadNYK +1.5 +0.5
TotalUnder 231.5 +8.0
MoneylinePHI -110
ProjectionNYK 111 – PHI 112
Model confidence85%
HOUHOU
@
DALDAL
Sat, Oct 31 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadDAL +4.5 +7.0
TotalUnder 227.5 +3.5
MoneylineDAL -130
ProjectionHOU 111 – DAL 113
Model confidence85%
INDIND
@
MIAMIA
Sat, Oct 31 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadIND +3.5 +2.5
TotalUnder 241.5 +14.5
MoneylineMIA -110
ProjectionIND 113 – MIA 114
Model confidence85%
DENDEN
@
PHXPHX
Sat, Oct 31 · 2:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadPHX +2.5 +1.0
TotalUnder 233.5 +6.5
MoneylineDEN -120
ProjectionDEN 114 – PHX 113
Model confidence85%
LALLAL
@
GSWGSW
Sat, Oct 31 · 2:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadGSW +1.5 +3.5
TotalUnder 235.5 +8.5
MoneylineGSW -125
ProjectionLAL 113 – GSW 115
Model confidence85%
PHIPHI
@
CLECLE
Sat, Nov 7 · 12:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadCLE -1.5 +2.5
TotalUnder 234.5 +11.0
MoneylineCLE -155
ProjectionPHI 110 – CLE 114
Model confidence85%
PORPOR
@
LALLAL
Sat, Nov 7 · 3:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadLAL -3.5 +4.5
TotalUnder 238.5 +13.0
MoneylineLAL -240
ProjectionPOR 109 – LAL 117
Model confidence85%
GSWGSW
@
SASSAS
Sat, Nov 14 · 2:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadGSW +10.5 +9.0
TotalUnder 234.5 +7.0
MoneylineSAS -120
ProjectionGSW 113 – SAS 115
Model confidence85%
DALDAL
@
DENDEN
Wed, Nov 25 · 3:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadDAL +8.5 +4.0
TotalUnder 237.5 +11.5
MoneylineDEN -165
ProjectionDAL 111 – DEN 115
Model confidence85%
MIAMIA
@
PHIPHI
Wed, Nov 25 · 10:10 PM ET  Strong
SpreadPHI -3.5 +0.5
TotalUnder 239.5 +17.0
MoneylinePHI -155
ProjectionMIA 109 – PHI 113
Model confidence85%
MINMIN
@
OKCOKC
Thu, Nov 26 · 12:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadMIN +8.5 +3.0
TotalUnder 235.5 +11.5
MoneylineOKC -185
ProjectionMIN 109 – OKC 115
Model confidence85%
SASSAS
@
PORPOR
Thu, Nov 26 · 3:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadPOR +4.5 +3.0
TotalUnder 237.5 +11.5
MoneylineSAS -120
ProjectionSAS 114 – POR 112
Model confidence85%
MIAMIA
@
NYKNYK
Sat, Nov 28 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadNYK -5.5 +0.0
TotalUnder 232.5 +10.5
MoneylineNYK -185
ProjectionMIA 108 – NYK 114
Model confidence85%
LALLAL
@
SASSAS
Sat, Nov 28 · 2:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadLAL +8.5 +7.5
TotalUnder 232.5 +7.0
MoneylineSAS -110
ProjectionLAL 112 – SAS 113
Model confidence85%
SASSAS
@
NYKNYK
Fri, Dec 25 · 5:00 PM ET  Strong
SpreadNYK +1.5 +7.0
TotalUnder 227.5 +3.0
MoneylineNYK -185
ProjectionSAS 110 – NYK 115
Model confidence85%
MIAMIA
@
BOSBOS
Fri, Dec 25 · 7:30 PM ET  Strong
SpreadBOS -6.5 +1.0
TotalUnder 231.5 +8.5
MoneylineBOS -230
ProjectionMIA 108 – BOS 115
Model confidence85%
PHIPHI
@
LALLAL
Fri, Dec 25 · 10:00 PM ET  Strong
SpreadLAL -1.5 +1.0
TotalUnder 237.5 +13.0
MoneylineLAL -130
ProjectionPHI 111 – LAL 114
Model confidence85%
OKCOKC
@
MINMIN
Sat, Dec 26 · 1:00 AM ET  Strong
SpreadMIN +4.5 +4.0
TotalUnder 233.5 +9.5
MoneylineOKC -105
ProjectionOKC 112 – MIN 112
Model confidence85%
DENDEN
@
GSWGSW
Sat, Dec 26 · 3:30 AM ET  Strong
SpreadGSW +2.5 +2.0
TotalUnder 239.5 +11.5
MoneylineDEN -105
ProjectionDEN 114 – GSW 114
Model confidence85%
DENDEN
@
OKCOKC
Fri, Oct 23 · 1:40 AM ET  Strong
SpreadDEN +7.5 +3.5
TotalUnder 232.5 +5.5
MoneylineOKC -155
ProjectionDEN 112 – OKC 116
Model confidence83%
NYKNYK
@
INDIND
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadIND +2.5 +3.5
TotalUnder 233.5 +5.5
MoneylineIND -110
ProjectionNYK 114 – IND 115
Model confidence83%
BOSBOS
@
DETDET
Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET  Strong
SpreadBOS +1.5 +5.0
TotalOver 221.5 +4.5
MoneylineBOS -145
ProjectionBOS 115 – DET 111
Model confidence80%
OKCOKC
@
SASSAS
Wed, Oct 21 · 1:30 AM ET  Strong
SpreadOKC +1.5 +4.5
TotalUnder 231.5 +5.0
MoneylineOKC -140
ProjectionOKC 115 – SAS 112
Model confidence80%
BOSBOS
@
WASWAS
Wed, Nov 25 · 1:10 AM ET  Strong
SpreadBOS -5.5 +2.5
TotalUnder 230.5 +4.5
MoneylineBOS -240
ProjectionBOS 117 – WAS 109
Model confidence77%
HOUHOU
@
DENDEN
Sat, Nov 21 · 3:10 AM ET  Lean
SpreadDEN -3.5 +1.0
TotalUnder 227.5 +2.5
MoneylineDEN -165
ProjectionHOU 110 – DEN 115
Model confidence65%
NYKNYK
@
BOSBOS
Fri, Oct 23 · 11:10 PM ET  Lean
SpreadBOS -2.5 +2.0
TotalOver 223.5 +0.5
MoneylineBOS -165
ProjectionNYK 110 – BOS 114
Model confidence62%

How to bet these picks responsibly

Size by confidence

More on strong plays, less on leans. A flat 1-unit strong / 0.5-unit lean plan keeps variance manageable.

Shop for the number

Half a point matters. Always take the best available line across your sportsbooks.

Bet edges early

When the model disagrees sharply with an opener, the market often corrects toward us. Early bettors get the best price.