Thu, Nov 26 · 12:40 AM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder: prediction & pick

Oklahoma City Thunder host Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup where the model sides with Oklahoma City Thunder. Our projection has OKC favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 65%, and a projected final of MIN 109 – OKC 115.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -8.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIN +8.5, an edge of about 3.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 224.0 combined points versus a market number of 235.5. That points to the Under 235.5, with about 11.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 109 – OKC 115, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.