Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans: prediction & pick

Minnesota Timberwolves visit New Orleans Pelicans with the model leaning toward New Orleans Pelicans. Our projection has NOP favored by roughly 0.0 points, a win probability near 50%, and a projected final of MIN 112 – NOP 112.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 4.5 on NOP, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NOP +4.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 223.5 points against the posted 229.5. That points to the Under 229.5, with about 6.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 112 – NOP 112, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.