Miami Heat vs New York Knicks: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Miami Heat at New York Knicks and it likes New York Knicks. Our projection has NYK favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 65%, and a projected final of MIA 108 – NYK 114.

Against the spread

The market opened at -5.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYK -5.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 222.0 points while the book has hung 232.5. That points to the Under 232.5, with about 10.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIA 108 – NYK 114, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.