Sat, Nov 28 · 2:40 AM ET

Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs and it likes San Antonio Spurs. Our projection has SAS favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of LAL 112 – SAS 113.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -8.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is LAL +8.5, an edge of about 7.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 225.5 points against the posted 232.5. That points to the Under 232.5, with about 7.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAL 112 – SAS 113, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.