Thu, Oct 22 · 12:10 AM ET

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans and it likes New Orleans Pelicans. Our projection has NOP favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of IND 114 – NOP 115.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 4.5 on NOP, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NOP +4.5, an edge of about 5.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 229.5 points against the posted 242.5. That points to the Under 242.5, with about 13.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 114 – NOP 115, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.