Sat, Nov 14 · 2:40 AM ET

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: prediction & pick

Golden State Warriors visit San Antonio Spurs with the model leaning toward San Antonio Spurs. Our projection has SAS favored by roughly 1.5 points, a win probability near 54%, and a projected final of GSW 113 – SAS 115.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -10.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is GSW +10.5, an edge of about 9.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 227.5 points against the posted 234.5. That points to the Under 234.5, with about 7.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GSW 113 – SAS 115, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.