Sat, Dec 26 · 3:30 AM ET

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors: prediction & pick

When Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors meet, our simulation gives the edge to Denver Nuggets. Our projection has DEN favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 51%, and a projected final of DEN 114 – GSW 114.

Against the spread

The market opened at 2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is GSW +2.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 228.0 points against the posted 239.5. That points to the Under 239.5, with about 11.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DEN 114 – GSW 114, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.