Thu, Nov 5 · 2:40 AM ET

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs: prediction & pick

Dallas Mavericks visit San Antonio Spurs with the model leaning toward San Antonio Spurs. Our projection has SAS favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 51%, and a projected final of DAL 113 – SAS 113.

Against the spread

The market opened at -12.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DAL +12.5, an edge of about 12.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 225.5 points against the posted 229.5. That points to the Under 229.5, with about 4.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DAL 113 – SAS 113, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.