NBAComputerPicksNBA Computer Picks: Best Bets for November 5, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Today's top NBA computer picks for Thursday, November 5, 2026, ranked by the size of the model's edge.
1. Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors — MIA +6.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -6.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIA +6.5, an edge of about 3.0 points in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 225.0 points while the book has hung 235.5. That points to the Under 235.5, with about 10.5 points of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIA 111 – GSW 114 · full preview →
2. Miami Heat at Boston Celtics — BOS -5.5 Strong
The market opened at -5.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS -5.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 223.0 combined points versus a market number of 230.5. That points to the Under 230.5, with about 7.5 points of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIA 108 – BOS 115 · full preview →
3. Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers — LAL -1 Strong
Where the book sits at -1 on LAL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is LAL -1, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 224.5 combined points versus a market number of 234. That points to the Under 234, with about 9.5 points of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PHI 111 – LAL 114 · full preview →
4. Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors — GSW +2 Strong
The market opened at 2 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is GSW +2, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 228.0 points against the posted 234.5. That points to the Under 234.5, with about 6.5 points of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected DEN 114 – GSW 114 · full preview →
5. San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks — NYK -1 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is NYK -1, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 224.5 points while the book has hung 230. That points to the Under 230, with about 5.5 points of under edge.
Model confidence 83% · projected SAS 110 – NYK 115 · full preview →